Oscars 2026: who will win, who should win and the most unpredictable race in recent years

  • 3 minute read
Ignacio Ferreyra
  • March 11, 2026
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The race towards the 2026 Academy Awards reaches its final stretch with one of the most open and unpredictable seasons in recent years.

The 2026 Oscars are approaching, and the feeling in Hollywood is clear: we are facing one of the most unpredictable awards seasons in recent years. After the SAG Awards, the BAFTA and the Golden Globes, several categories still have no undisputed frontrunner. Some films have gained momentum at the last minute, while others have lost ground just when they seemed certain to secure the statuette.

This is an analysis of who will win, who should win, and which titles deserved to be part of the conversation in the night’s most important categories.

Best Picture

  • Will win: ‘Sinners’
  • Should win: ‘Sinners’
  • Should have been nominated: ‘The Voice of Hind Rajab’


The race for Best Picture has become a direct battle between ‘Sinners’, the vampire saga directed by Ryan Coogler, and ‘One Battle After Another’, the ambitious epic from Paul Thomas Anderson. For much of the season, Anderson’s film seemed unstoppable after triumphing at the BAFTA, Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. However, the recent surge of ‘Sinners’ following its victory at the actors’ awards has reignited the race and could lead to a last-minute surprise. The major absence in the category is ‘The Voice of Hind Rajab’, a film with enormous emotional and political impact that many consider one of the most important of the year.

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Best Director

  • Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson for ‘One Battle After Another’
  • Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson for ‘One Battle After Another’
  • Should have been nominated: Jafar Panahi for ‘It Was Just an Accident’


Despite the overall uncertainty of the race, this category appears to have a clear outcome. Paul Thomas Anderson has won almost every major directing award throughout the season. After decades creating influential films such as ‘Boogie Nights’, ‘There Will Be Blood’ and ‘Phantom Thread’, the Academy could finally recognise his career.

Best Actress

  • Will win: Jessie Buckley for ‘Hamnet’
  • Should win: Jessie Buckley for ‘Hamnet’
  • Should have been nominated: Chase Infiniti for ‘One Battle After Another’


Irish actress Jessie Buckley has dominated this awards season thanks to her intense performance in ‘Hamnet’. With victories at the BAFTA, Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, her win appears almost certain. While other performances have generated conversation, few have received the same level of industry support.

Best Actor

  • Will win: Wagner Moura for ‘The Secret Agent’
  • Should win: Ethan Hawke for ‘Blue Moon’
  • Should have been nominated: Joel Edgerton for ‘Train Dreams’


The male acting category is one of the most open races of the night. For months, Timothée Chalamet appeared to be the favourite for ‘Marty Supreme’, but after losing several key awards, Brazilian actor Wagner Moura has gained momentum thanks to his leading role in the thriller ‘The Secret Agent’. Even so, many believe the most complex performance of the year belongs to Ethan Hawke in ‘Blue Moon’.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Will win: Amy Madigan for ‘Weapons’
  • Should win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for ‘Sentimental Value’
  • Should have been nominated: Tânia Maria for ‘The Secret Agent’


Amy Madigan’s performance as the unsettling Aunt Gladys in ‘Weapons’ has gained strong momentum in recent weeks. After decades of career, the 75-year-old actress could finally receive recognition from the Academy.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Will win: Stellan Skarsgård for ‘Sentimental Value’
  • Should win: Stellan Skarsgård for ‘Sentimental Value’
  • Should have been nominated: William H. Macy for ‘Train Dreams’


After more than half a century of career, Stellan Skarsgård could secure his first Oscar thanks to his complex performance in ‘Sentimental Value’, one of the year’s strongest acting achievements.

  • Best Original Screenplay
  • Will win: ‘Sinners’
  • Should win: ‘Sentimental Value’
  • Should have been nominated: ‘Sorry, Baby’


Ryan Coogler’s screenplay for ‘Sinners’ has been one of the most celebrated of the season. Its blend of spectacle, world-building and original storytelling has impressed both critics and audiences.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Will win: ‘One Battle After Another’
  • Should win: ‘Train Dreams’
  • Should have been nominated: ‘No Other Choice’


Paul Thomas Anderson’s adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s novel Vineland has been one of the most awarded scripts of the year, consolidating its position as the frontrunner.

Best International Feature Film

  • Will win: ‘Sentimental Value’
  • Should win: ‘Sentimental Value’
  • Should have been nominated: ‘No Other Choice’


The Norwegian drama ‘Sentimental Value’ has become one of the most acclaimed international titles of the season and could make history if it secures Norway’s first Oscar in this category.

With many categories still open and several frontrunners shifting week by week, the 2026 Oscars promise a night full of surprises. The only certainty is that this awards season has already become one of the most exciting in recent years.

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Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Xmag UK, Ignacio Ferreyra began his career shaping the image of global brands worldwide. He later became a contributing editor for Elle Argentina and wrote for leading Argentine media before founding Xmag in 2019, now an international luxury and culture magazine with European reach.
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